According to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, privately-owned housing starts in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000. That’s 2.6 percent above March’s revised number and 29.9 percent above April 2011. Single-family housing starts were also up in April, rising 2.3 percent from the month before. And though total building permits fell after rising 4.5 percent in March, single-family authorizations were at a rate of 475,000, which is a 1.9 percent increase over March’s revised figure of 466,000. More here.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, the Market Composite Index, which measures total mortgage loan application volume, was up 9.2 percent last week due to a 13.0 percent surge in the Refinance Index. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, however, fell 2.4 percent from the previous week. Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s vice president of research and economics, said the increase in refinance activity was due to a spike in the conventional sector and not because of rising government loan demand. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances fell to another new low, dropping to 3.96 percent from 4.01 percent the week before. More here.
Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose five points to 29 in May, according to the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index. The improvement brought the index to its highest level since May 2007. Barry Rutenberg, chairman of the NAHB, said builders are reporting a pickup in sales and traffic after a pause in April. According to Rutenberg, it’s a sign that the upward trend in confidence that began earlier this year has resumed and that stabilizing prices and excellent affordability are encouraging people to purchase homes. Each of the component indexes measuring current sales, traffic, and expectations for the next six months rose in May after declining in April. More here.
Fannie Mae’s April 2012 National Housing Survey finds Americans’ attitudes toward homeownership, the economy, personal finances, and home prices continuing to improve. A large majority of respondents say now is a good time to buy a house and an increasing number say it’s a good time to sell. Doug Duncan, vice president and chief economist of Fannie Mae, said after flat lining at depressed levels for more than a year, the growing number of consumers who feel it’s a good time to sell suggests rising optimism for the housing market. Among the other highlights of the survey, the number of respondents who expressed confidence in the economy’s direction hit a two-year high in April and Americans expect home prices to rise by 1.3 percent over the next year. Also, 23 percent of Americans say they’ve seen an increase in their personal income over the past 12 months, which is the highest level recorded in a year. More here
According to a Gallup poll tracking daily economic confidence, Americans’ view of the economy is increasingly positive and is now within one point of the highest level recorded since Gallup began daily tracking of economic confidence in 2008. Nearly half of respondents to the survey, which polled 3,426 adults across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, said they feel the economy is headed in the right direction and the percentage who feel things are getting worse has fallen more than 30 percent since October 2008, at the height of the financial crisis. But, despite reaching levels equal to the highest ratings of last year, Americans’ economic confidence is still historically low when compared, for example, to levels seen in the late 1990s. More here.
New data from Freddie Mac finds 79 percent of homeowners who refinanced their mortgage during the first quarter of 2012 reduced or maintained their principal balance. The number of borrowers who were able to maintain about the same loan amount after refinancing was the highest in the 26 years Freddie Mac has been tracking the data. Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac’s vice president and chief economist, said the typical borrower reduced their mortgage rate by 1.5 percent which, on a $200,000 loan, would save them nearly $3,000 over 12 months. Also, HARP loans accounted for 20 percent of Freddie Mac’s refinance fundings during the first quarter. According to Nothaft, it was the highest share of HARP loans since the inception of the government program and was largely due to recently adopted enhancements. More here.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Applications Survey, the Market Composite Index, which measures both refinance and purchase loan activity, rose 1.7 percent last week from the week before. The increase was due to growing demand for conventional rather than government loans. Demand in the government market was down last week but, despite the dip, the Purchase Index rose 3.4 percent and the Refinance Index increased 1.3 percent. The refinance share of all mortgage activity was 72.1 percent. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell to 4.01 percent from 4.05 percent the week before. It was the lowest 30-year rate recorded in the history of the survey. More here.
Despite some tough overhead technical resistance, mortgage bonds clawed their way to another positive close and are sitting at a new all-time high. Record low rates are ripe for a reversal in the short-term, but MBS refuse to give in as stocks struggle with the woes in Euope.
The National Association of Home Builders’ Improving Markets Index held steady at 100 in May, down from 101 in April. The number of represented states was also virtually unchanged from the month before at 35. The index determines improving housing markets based on metropolitan areas that have had at least six consecutive months of improved housing permits, employment, and home prices. In May, 17 new metros were added to the list, while 83 cities carried over from April. Barry Rutenberg, NAHB’s Chairman, said the fact that there are 100 markets across 35 states that are improving illustrates that the health of the housing market is determined by individual metropolitan areas more than national data. More here.
Speaking at an economic conference in Washington, Shaun Donovan, secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, said the housing market has turned a corner. Donovan cited sales statistics, the number of signed contracts, and the decreasing number of households falling into foreclosure as evidence that the market has made progress over the past few years. Donovan’s remarks echo the increasingly positive forecasts being released by industry insiders and market analysts. For example, Fitch Ratings’ most recent outlook says housing starts should see a 10 percent increase in 2012, with new home sales up 8.0 percent. And Capital Economics’ Paul Diggle expects housing to become a boost to economic growth in the near future. More here, here, and here.
